Cutting US Income Taxes Will Blow Out The Budget

BY JOHN MAULDIN : The cost of health care runs well over $ 1.1 trillion. Social Security is almost $ 1 trillion. Defense spending is $ 620 billion. Entitlement programs for our nation’s seniors and low-income individuals and families run $ 550 billion. (That includes food stamps, disability, affordable housing, earned-income tax credits, childcare tax credits, and so on.)
The Market Oracle

Past and present meet in Washington half

When I was a kid, I used to page through price lists and daydream about the coins I would one day buy.

Sometimes I did buy something.

However, most of the time, my desires for coins far exceeded my ability to buy them.

But thinking about future acquisitions is the starting point for formulating a collecting plan.

Now, many years later, I allowed myself some daydreaming this morning.

After I checked the Kitco website to find that the current price of silver is $ 17.63 a troy ounce, I went to the APMEX website to see what was being offered for sale.

I was not looking for bullion buys.

APMEX does more than sell bullion, but I was looking at coins that were practically priced as bullion even though we collectors don’t think of the pieces as such.

One coin that jumped off the web page at me was the 1982 George Washington silver half dollar.

I remember how important I thought that coin was when it was issued. I remember how excited I was that commemorative coins were once again being made by the United States Mint after a 28-year gap.

Of course, I sent my orders in for both the proof and the uncirculated pieces back then.

I was not alone.

Buyers of the 1982-S proof acquired 4,894,044 of these half dollars.

For the uncirculated version dated 1982-D, collectors grabbed 2,210,458.

Now 35 years later, you can go on a bullion website and buy one for $ 10.41.

Silver melt value is $ 6.38.

In percentage terms, that’s not exactly a cheap form of silver, but it is not all that expensive either.

Think of the many hopes like mine that were invested in these coins when they were issued 35 years ago.

Now they are hardly more than so much bullion.

That is to be expected.

With roughly 7 million coins sold, how can they be anything other than priced according to melt value?

Interest in commemoratives now has shrunk so that current U.S. sales figures for silver coins are hardly more than 1 percent or 2 percent of the Washington half dollar demand.

And no, I haven’t put the decimal point in the wrong place. One percent of 7 million is 70,000.

It is sad, but it is also an opportunity for today’s collectors.

There are an awful lot of coins from the past that can be purchased this way.

Collectors can acquire a nice little stash of silver, or gold for that matter, by buying one of each of these kinds of pieces for not that much over melt value.

In drooling over this possibility, I have actually come full circle and I can see that I still have a lot in common with my collecting self from 50 years ago.

Buzz blogger Dave Harper has twice won the Numismatic Literary Guild Award for Best Blog and is editor of the weekly newspaper “Numismatic News.”

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The post Past and present meet in Washington half appeared first on Numismatic News.

Buzz – Numismatic News

Valuing Mining Stocks – In Defense Of Net Asset Value

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Low Interest Rates Helping Australia Transition from the Mining Boom

Australia’s transition from its reliance on mining exports to other sectors appears to be gathering pace as more businesses continue to take advantage of the low interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia reduced the base interest rate, popularly referred to as the cash rate, twice last year from 2% to 1.75% and again to 1.5%. The cash rate remains fixed at 1.5%, which when compared to many developed countries is still one of the highest.
The Market Oracle

Whats next for the Dollar, Gold Stocks?

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The art of collecting & selling coins – Aboutstark.com


Aboutstark.com

The art of collecting & selling coins
Aboutstark.com
Clements, who began collecting coins in the 1950s after his dad brought home coins and paper money from his time in the Pacific during World War II, fields questions daily about a coin's value at Hartville Coin & Jewelry, which is among the oldest—if

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Trading with Elliott Waves Doesn’t Have to Be Complicated

Start simple, with the basic 5 “core” Elliott wave chart patterns Jeffrey Kennedy, a recognized expert in Elliott wave analysis and forecasting, explains why the Wave Principle is such a reliable and powerful way to forecast the financial markets.
The Market Oracle

US Mint Sales: 2016 Proof Silver Eagle Leads Ahead of 2017’s Debut

Buying interested picked up for last year’s proof Silver Eagle, just days before this year’s version launches, the latest round of United States Mint sales figures shows. Orders of 30th anniversary…

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Coin News

Trump Stock Market Rally Over? 20% Bear Drop By Mid Summer?

The stock market has been on a tear since Donald Trump surprised nearly everyone by winning the November 2016 US Presidential election, including the markets. Since which time the Dow has gone from a November low of 17,883 to an early March high of 21,200. That’s a near 19% bull run in just 4 months! During which time America’s Alt-Reality thin skinned President has often stepped forward to claim success for the stocks bull market rally under his Presidency.
The Market Oracle

Gold Gains for Fifth Straight Session, Silver Dips Slightly

Gold futures advanced for a fifth straight session Wednesday, posting a fresh close at now a three-week high. Gold for April delivery settled up $ 3.20, or 0.3%, to $ 1,249.70 an ounce on the Comex…

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Coin News

Even in the face of Prohibition, Cannabis Stocks Soar!

This article originally was published here: https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/even-in-the-face-of-prohibition-cannabis-stocks-soar/8582

deaaIf you consume cannabis, you could be killed.

And no, I’m not talking about in some far-away land where women are imprisoned for being raped and child brides are considered status symbols.

I’m talking about right here in the U.S.

According to data recently compiled by the New York Times, since 2010, at least 20 SWAT raids involving suspected cannabis dealers have resulted in fatalities.

As reported in the Washington Post …

The list of fatalities includes small-time dealers and people who sold the occasional joint to a friend, as well as people suspected of dealing in more serious drugs like crack or meth, but who were found to be in possession of only marijuana after the fact. It also includes four police officers who were killed during the raids, intentionally or otherwise.

The deadly raids are a reminder that an activity that’s legal and celebrated in some states — selling weed — can get you killed in others.

When folks ask me why I invest in cannabis, my first response is not, “because it’s incredibly lucrative.” Sure, there’s a ton of money to be made in this space. But I actually got into this because the bottom line is that prohibition is a human rights violation, and there’s been no bigger waste of our blood and treasure than the war on drugs.

With more than $ 1 trillion spent and millions of innocent people murdered, it is, without a doubt, one of the worst cases of a human rights violations in this country. And that’s why I invest in legal cannabis. Because make no mistake, without this industry being an insanely profitable one, which has helped individual states generate massive amounts of tax revenue, the war on drugs would continue to thrive.

By investing in quality cannabis companies, we are ensuring these operations grow and flourish, which results in making it a hell of a lot harder for prohibitionists to continue this tragedy we know as the war on drugs.

And that, dear reader, is a good thing.

Here’s how our cannabis stocks performed today …

  • Aurora Cannabis (TSX-V: ACB) – Up 0.44%
  • Aphria, Inc. (TSX-V: APH) – Up 1.28%
  • Emblem Corp. (TSX-V: EMC) –  Up 6.51%
  • Emerald Health (TSX-V: EMH) – Up 3.85%
  • Innovative Industrial Properties (NYSE: IIPR) – Up 2%
  • OrganiGram (TSX-V: OGI) – Down 1.39%
  • Canopy Growth Corporation (TSX: WEED) – Down 1.02%

Here’s what we’re buying …

Emerald Health (TSX-V: EMH) – Buying below $ 1.45

And here’s what we’re watching …

This article originally was published here: https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/even-in-the-face-of-prohibition-cannabis-stocks-soar/8582

Even in the face of Prohibition, Cannabis Stocks Soar! originally appeared in Wealth Daily. Fortune Favors the Bold


Wealth Daily

What’s Next for the US Dollar, Gold and Stocks?

Two rate hikes since last year have weakened the dollar. Why is that, and what’s ahead for dollar, currencies & gold? And while we are at it, we’ll chime in on what may be in store for the stock market…
The Market Oracle

American Palladium Eagle Designs Reviewed

The United States Mint is closer to producing and selling American Eagle 1 oz Palladium Bullion Coins. Designs for a 2017 $ 25 American Palladium Eagle have been officially reviewed twice — by the…

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Coin News

Is the Trump Rally Over?

This article originally was published here: https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/is-the-trump-rally-over/8581

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines of this rally, wondering if you will ever get the chance to buy a stock or two at a reasonable price, well, you’re in luck. The optimism bubble that’s carried stocks to their highest valuations in 15 years has finally popped. Your chance to buy stocks cheaper than they are now is coming. 

I know, yesterday was just one day. That 29.45-point drop in the S&P 500 was just 1.24%. Not exactly a crash. Volume wasn’t as high as it was on Friday. Still, yesterday “felt” different, didn’t it?

In part it felt different because we haven’t seen a 1% drop for the S&P 500 in months. Even though all streaks must come to an end, we’re just not used to seeing stocks sell off like that. But there were a couple aspects of the decline that make me think there’s more downside coming. 

First, there are small-cap stocks. While the big indices — S&P 500 and Dow Industrials — were down a little over 1%, the small-cap index got taken to the woodshed…

iwm

That’s the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM). It tracks the Russell 2000 small-cap index. It fell 2.74% yesterday, more than double the declines of the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials. That’s significant for a couple reasons. One, it represents a lot more stocks — 2,000, to be exact. The selling in small caps was widespread and rampant. 

Two, small caps are generally considered to be more speculative than bigger stocks. Small caps tend to perform best as animal spirits get released during a rally. But when the rally turns, look out. The small caps tend to lead in the downside, too. And that’s exactly what happened yesterday. IWM sliced through the 50-day moving average (blue line) like a hot knife through butter. 

The 50-day moving average is a common way to measure the medium-term trend. When the price is above the 50-day MA, the trend is thought to be up. When the price drops below the 50-day MA, the trend is thought to be lower. So that’s a pretty strong signal from IWM. 

But perhaps an even stronger signal came from one of my favorite stocks, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)…

Financials Always Lead

It’s one of those stock market mantras: the financials lead the market. There is good reason for this, as banks are excellent gauges of economic health. Basically, when economic activity is increasing, people and companies are borrowing money. And when the economy slows, banks are often the canary in the coalmine. It’s no coincidence that the first sign of the financial crisis came in late 2007, when Meredith Whitney made her famous call that Citi was going to have to cut its dividend…

Now, the first thing I did when I took over as editor of The Wealth Advisory income and dividend newsletter in February 2012 was recommend Bank of America. It was just over $ 9 a share at the time. But its trajectory seemed clear to me. That is, it was going higher. 

But check out the action from yesterday…

bac 3 20 17

As you can see, the stock had been looking kind of weak over the last few days. But wow, Bank of America dropped about 6% yesterday. 259 million shares changed hands, which is a lot. And like the Russell 2000 ETF, Bank of America shares cruised through the 50-day moving average like it wasn’t even there. 

Now, about those 259 million shares: If we look back over the last 18 months, we’ll see BofA traded that many shares right after the Brexit vote. Volume was heavy like that last January when the sell-off that welcomed in 2016 was reaching a crescendo.

In both cases, Bank of America was very near its lows. In January, the heavy selling started with the shares around $ 13, and they bottomed out just below $ 12. In the Brexit case, those two heavy volume days marked the bottom for the stock.

bac 2 year

So, go back and look at those first two charts I shared with you. Notice anything about where the heavy volume selling started? Yeah, the top of the trend, not the bottom. 

Sure, that could be a one-day event…

But somehow I don’t think that’s going to be the case.

Trump Rally, Trump Correction

I’m not going to talk too much about this, but as we all know, this whole rally was based on Trump policy. Basically the belief that he was going to cut corporate taxes, roll back some regulations like Dodd-Frank that has hindered the banks, and maybe spend a bunch of money on infrastructure.

As I’ve written here before, the corporate tax cut alone had the potential to add $ 10 a share to S&P 500 earnings, which is significant. 

You may also recall that I warned that if the Trump administration put off tax reform and easing regulations, and instead focused on Obamacare, the market would sell off

It looks like that’s what’s happening now. The House is set to vote on the new health care bill tomorrow. Consensus is that it will not pass. That’s another defeat for the Trump administration. But worse, it dials back the clock on tax reform. Those corporate tax cuts could have come in 2017. That would have justified the rally. But now that we may not get those tax reforms until 2018, well, just look at those charts again. 

So now the obvious question is: why now? We’ve all known that Trump was focused on repealing and replacing Obamacare first. Tax reform was clearly on the back burner. So why did it take so long for investors to question the underlying assumptions of this rally? 

I don’t know. The stock market is funny that way…

Sometimes things get priced in right away, sometimes it takes a while. Home prices topped out in 2005–2006, but that bull market kept chugging for at least another year. Same thing with the end of the tech bubble in 2000 — the economy had already slowed when Greenspan hiked rates 50 basis points on May 16, 2000. 

So anyway, what now? Well, I’m reminded of a joke from a movie about LA cops called Colors. Robert Duvall has an eager rookie Sean Penn as a partner. Duvall tells him this story about a young bull and an old bull sitting on a hill, watching a bunch of cows grazing in the meadow below. The young bull spies a cow he likes and says to the old bull, “Hey, why don’t we run down and [make sweet love] to that cow?”

The old bull shakes his head and says, “Why don’t we just walk down and [make sweet love] to them all?”

Until next time,

brit''s sig

Briton Ryle

follow basic@BritonRyle on Twitter

An 18-year veteran of the newsletter business, Briton Ryle is the editor of The Wealth Advisory income stock newsletter, with a focus on top-quality dividend growth stocks and REITs. Briton also manages the Real Income Trader advisory service, where his readers take regular cash payouts using a low-risk covered call option strategy. He also contributes a weekly column to the Wealth Daily e-letter. To learn more about Briton, click here.

This article originally was published here: https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/is-the-trump-rally-over/8581

Is the Trump Rally Over? originally appeared in Wealth Daily. Fortune Favors the Bold


Wealth Daily

Cheap U.S. silver proof might be surprise

Bullion investors and collectors don’t like doing math.

That’s why one-ounce bullion coins took over the market.

But if they did in fact do math, they might be surprised at what they discover.

I was as I did some doodling this morning after a conversation on the telephone about commemorative coins.

The 2017 Boys Town silver proof dollar currently is priced at a pre-issue discount of $ 47.95 each.

It has the traditional silver dollar silver weight of .7734 ounce.

There is a $ 10 per coin surcharge donation that will go to Boys Town, but if there weren’t, the price could be $ 37.95 for the handsome proof coin.

That is still an expensive price for just over three-quarters of an ounce of silver.

But at the same time the Mint is charging this figure for the Boys Town coin, it has a completely different price structure for the America the Beautiful silver proof quarter set.

It asks $ 31.95 for the 2017 five-coin silver proof set.

That means that an individual coin is actually just $ 6.39.

That seems reasonable to me.

Put another way, four such coins become very nearly three-quarters of an ounce of silver at .724 ounce.

Four coins would be valued at $ 6.39 times four, or $ 25.56.

What this  means is that the Mint is selling its proof commemorative ATB quarters for half the price of the proof commemorative silver dollar as measured strictly from silver value.

If collectors are looking for new and superior Mint products such as a proof coin made of silver, it will pay to take a look at the silver proof ATB set.

If you want to turn this exercise into a troy ounce of silver, you would take the silver weight of the proof quarter, .181 ounce and divide 1 by it. That reveals that it takes 5.52 quarters to equal one troy ounce of silver.

Multiply the $ 6.39 individual proof quarter price by 5.52 and you arrive at $ 35.30 for a proof ounce of silver.

Considering that a one-ounce 2017 proof American Eagle that goes on sale tomorrow will be priced around the $ 53.95 current price of the 2016 version on the Mint’s website and you can see that in pure quantities of proof silver, ATB quarters offer the precious metal at a much lower price.

Unless you are simply buying a one-ounce silver American Eagle as a metal investment, the proof ATB quarters are an attractive way to own silver and be a collector at the same time.

Checking APMEX this morning, you can buy a one-ounce bullion American Eagle for $ 21.41.

The silver in the proof quarters is just 65 percent more expensive than when it comes in the form of a one-ounce bullion coin. That is cheap for high-quality proofs. It compares to a 152 percent markup for silver when it takes the form of a proof silver American Eagle.

Collectors looking for the best silver value in U.S. a proof coin should be focusing on the silver ATB quarters rather than the proof Eagles or proof commemorative silver dollars.

Will they?

Probably not.

Is it a problem of basic coin appeal?

Or is it a problem with doing the math?

Buzz blogger Dave Harper has twice won the Numismatic Literary Guild Award for Best Blog and is editor of the weekly newspaper “Numismatic News.”

• Like this blog? Read more by subscribing to Numismatic News

The post Cheap U.S. silver proof might be surprise appeared first on Numismatic News.

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100 Items That Disappear First in a Disaster

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An OPEC Oil Deal Extension Isn’t As Simple As It Sounds

It’s been six months now that oil prices have been reacting to OPEC, first to the possibility of an agreement, and then to the production cut deal itself, forged by OPEC to rebalance the market. The deal–initially aired as ‘an agreement to agree on a deal’ in September and signed at the end of November—will likely impact the market for at least the next six months.
The Market Oracle

SPX turns at the half-Cycle interval

This morning’s action may add credence to a 43-hour decline from the 2390.01 top and the probable Master Cycle low on Friday morning, as discussed this morning. The SPX turned exactly at the 21.5 hour interval. Wave [iii] may be underway. There is no signal from the VIX or the Hi-Lo. They will likely be in place as SPX declines through the neckline.
The Market Oracle

Nest egg’s silver lining – The Register-Guard


The Register-Guard

Nest egg's silver lining
The Register-Guard
People interested in precious metals also can turn their interest into a hobby by collecting coins. David Nelkin, owner of Eugene Coin and Jewelry, works with several collectors who invest in old, precious metal, foreign and/or rare currency. Is it

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Aggressive Stock Market Sell Signals

SPX has now violated the neckline. This gives us our sell signal in SPX. Confirmation may come with the violation of the Broadening Wedge trendline at 2345.00.
The Market Oracle


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