U.S. Coin Price Guide

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2010 British Coin Forecast
By Geoffrey Cope

Based on information from dealers and following market conditions I would forecast that the prices over the next years will keep an upward movement.

The above is supported by the increase of individuals and pension for diversification of assets and protection.

The Fenton Auction in London saw a jump in prices for high quality pieces; this will be followed by the market increasing for lesser quality items. The Internet is producing a new base of collectors who consider today’s price levels inexpensive. The UK has an old company that is introducing Numismatics as an Alternative Asset for inflation protection. The difference is today the companies would prefer and orderly market, prices not to run out of hand.

If you analyze historically from 1936 to date on the material through auctions and major dealers except for re-adjustment of prices of items that were miss-priced the compound growth for coins is +11.0% -12.5%. Average inflation during this period was 3.8%. This can vary if specific areas of British coins are not popular for a period.

Price comparisons between USA and UK coins, the gap is so great I can hope the US collector does not decide to collect UK material in a serious way – otherwise we will see price rises we have never seen in the UK market as it will be re-structured the US way which is different than the UK.[A comparison of values will increase many items several times] An example in one change will be that in the US the dealers will stock and support the market and hold much more stock at higher prices.
Below is a partial exerpt from Spink’s 2010 Standard Catelog of British Coins – PREFACE & MARKET TRENDS

“To some extent we appear to be recovering from the banking crisis and the resulting economic downturn and be more forward looking and positive again, however this is heavily due to the enormous amounts of cash injected into the economy by the government. This money is being spent in our economy and it would be extremely worrying if this policy did not have a direct impact. Only time will tell if this recovery is real but one thing that is fairly certain is that we will see rising inflation. These wider market conditions have prompted several interesting trends within the coin market as a whole, most noticeably that collectors are largely choosing not to sell their coins but to hold on to their assets which are seen to be continuing to increase in value.

This is quite understandable and is true in any rising market; sellers naturally want to try to sell at the peak. Another effect is that the more specialised collectors begin to diversify into areas in which they had previous! ly shown little or no interest. For example, long-time collectors of British crowns might decide that there is not enough new material to buy so might look to other denominations instead to feed their interest and continue to spend their budget on coins.

Furthermore, people who have been collectors for some time might put even more money into their collections as it makes little sense putting their money elsewhere and new collectors enter the market because the areas in which they would usually employ their capital were seen as too risky or low return such as property, shares and deposit accounts. It is also true that in a rising market one tends to feel justified in spending more money as your assets rise in value, in the same way that you might decide to have a new kitchen fitted if the value of your property increased significantly.”


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