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Is There Something Seriously Wrong With The Coin Market?
By Laura Sperber

THERE ARE NO COOL HIGH QUALITY COINS AROUND

We are talking about true rarities and high grade drop dead monster coins (although we have not seen things like MONSTER MS68 Morgans). When is the last time you have seen any of these offered for sale more than once in the past few years?


GEM Early Half Cents
2C GEM MS65+ FULL RED
3CS 1867-1869 MS 64+
3CN MS67 better dates
5C MS67 Liberty Nickels
25C ALL MS64+ EARLY BUST
25C GEM Lib Seated MS65+
50C ALL EARLY BUST MS63+
50C BUST HALVES MS66+
50C 19D+21S MS65+
SEATED DOLLARS MS65+
TRADE DOLLARS MS66+
PR GOLD $10+20’s 65+
$3 BETTER pieces MS65+
$5 1808-1834 MS65+
$10 PRE 1890 MS65+
These are just RANDOM areas we could think of. Its nearly impossible to go to a major show today and see anything cool for sale. Even the major auctions are now bone dry of neat coins. Retreads at lower prices have been keeping the demand fairly satisfied but now we are clearly at the breaking point.

The lack of coins has nothing to do with the grading services. GREAT COINS ARE IN STRONG HANDS. Quietly, demand has been growing and taking coins off the market. For years a Japanese group were buying up PR Gold and GEM CC DMPL’s. The worlds largest telemarketer has been buying up all the Early Bust Gold it can find its customers. A major Wall Street Fund had been quietly trolling around and buying all the substantial coins it could. A new breed of “super” collector has emerged and they are assembling collections valued in the HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS each (which is one of the reasons why there are now OVER 350 coins worth $1 million or more). Our point is, there have been HUGE vacuums of coins all around for the past few years and no one really noticed. Obviously, it did not take much to dry up supply.

Having no coins around is both good and bad. Its bad because the market can actually slow due to lack of trading. We know that if we can not find the coins on our massive Want Lists, then we do not make sales. Sure, we have an inventory, but like everyone elses, it is speculative in nature. Plus at shows it becomes a big psychological negative to go from table to table looking at dreck (again, that’s LOW END, UGLY, PROBLEM coins) or the same stuff priced too high. The good part, in order to dig up the special goodies, PRICES MUST GO UP. Dealers will either bid more or you’ll see coins go crazy in auctions.
LEGEND NUMISMATICS STRONGLY BELIEVES THAT PRICES FOR GREAT COINS WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE BY THE END OF THIS YEARS ANA SHOW (assuming the market remains constant). We are NOT hyping things, our reporting is factual reality. Even if a major collection comes along, the market will readily absorb it. Case in point, the Holmes and Naftzger Large Cent Collections. Not only was demand incredible at the sales (where many record prices were realized), we have rarely seen ANY of the coins surface in 2010 for resale. Both sales combined totaled $20,000,000.00+!

We cannot state our case any better than what we have said above. Think about all the coins you have NOT seen in the past few years. if you get offered something more unique and everything about it is right-except the price is high, ask yourself, when will I ever see another? THE TIME IS NOW TO REALLY LOAD UP AND BUY THE BEST COINS YOU CAN AFFORD-if any become available. Paying an extra 20-40% today, is insignificant when years down the road you get a several hundred % increase. the best example of that we can give: the 1909 VDB NGC PR68* 1C we recently sold well in excess of $200,000.00. Our customer paid $38,500.00 (which at the time was crazy money) in 1999. You do the math!

OKAY, IF THERE ARE NO COINS WHY AREN’T YOU PAYING SO MUCH FOR MY COINS?

A common question. Lets say someone offers us a decent NGC PR67 Lib Nickel. In auctions they are selling for around $1,200-$1,350.00. But we offer $1,000.00 or pass on the coin completely. This is because we are NOT experiencing demand for that particular type of coin at the time. So if we make any offer, its going to be cheaper because we are taking into account the fact we’ll probably have to sit with it. Also, quality canbe an issue too. However, offer us a 3C 1867 PCGS MS65, and we pay what ever it takes.

Collectors seem to think dealers should buy any coin they get offered. Many times collectors also sell their coins at the wrong time (for that coin). Also, collectors love to offer deaelrs coins AFTER a show (the BEST time to offer is right before a major show). People must remember, coins perform the best in the LONG term. Short term there are always violitle swings in the market. And that means that even if the market is good, your coin could experience a short term liquidity issue.

THIS ONE WILL BE AN EASY “WE TOLD YOU SO”

There are no cool coins around for us to buy. We know other dealers of our caliber are having the same problems. So short term, there could be a dip as trading slows,, but long term prices have no choice but to up to satisfy demand. We are going to keep repeating this as many people do not seem to be listening.

At the upcoming Central States Show in Milwaukee, we expect to do very well selling. We just can’t see how we will be able to buy much.

THE BRYAN SONNIER COLLECTION AND THE SUNNYWOOD/SIMPSON COLLECTION

Legend Numisatics is proud to own and offer parts of these two great collections to our customers.

The Sonnier Dollars are unquestionably some of the BEST colored Morgans to be sold-ever (yes, many blow the Battle creek coins away). Here we have our final grouping of this remarkable collection. No, these are not the dregs of the dea, we did keep a few of the wilder coins for the end. We will miss these incredible GEMS!

The Sunnywood/Simpson Collection. This is probably the only completed fully colored set of Morgans in existance! And these are not just average grades or colors! We thank our loyal customer Mr. Simpson for releasing these coins to us. These will be the ONLY duplicates ever available. It took the original buildier of the Sunnywood Collection years and an unheard of effort to find the “right” coins for this amazing collection. We can’t stress enough how great of an opportunity these coins represent for serious colored Morgan buyers.

P.S. WE JUST NOTICED

GOLD IS QUIETLY SNEAKING UP. All of last week gold rose a few dollars each day (just about). Tonight 4/11 it is on the move upwards again.

There has been virtually no movment in generics. Demand for better generic gold (like GEM $3 pieces) has been spotty. We do sell every PCGS/CAC MS66/67 Saint we can buy. But we are not getting calls for anything else. This situation mostly likely will change overnight should gold keep rising. At some point the telemarketers will spook the masses into a buying frenzy. And we all know there is nothing more the herds love to do-is buy while something is going up.

So if you want to buy gold, do it now. Or, if you want to sell, do not think you are smart enough to hit the high, just be ready if there is a quick move.

 



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